The DRAM market is changing across generations, and 2021 will be the first year of DDR5

According to a survey conducted by the semiconductor Research Office of TrendForce, for PC and Server DRAM products with the same wafer design, the current mainstream solution is DDR4, which accounted for nine of the above two application categories in the third quarter. into the above. The definition of the next generation of DDR5 has also been formulated by the JEDEC specification in September 2019. It is expected that the penetration rate of PC platform import will not increase significantly until 2022.

The two major supply platforms on the PC side are limited by the total BOM cost structure, and the DDR5 import plan has been extended to 2022

Intel (Intel) is the main PC platform supplier, accounting for more than 70% of the total PC shipments. Since PC consumers are highly sensitive to the price of the whole machine, the price of DDR5 at the initial launch must be at a premium compared with DDR4. Therefore, The Intel platform support schedule will not be overly aggressive.

Observing Intel’s current plan, it was originally expected that Tiger Lake-H (the highest-end version only) to be released in 2021 would be the first to support DDR5, but in the end Intel still decided to suspend the plan, and it may not be until the Alder Lake platform in early 2022 at the earliest. Formal cooperation.

As a secondary platform supplier, AMD accounts for more than 20% of the overall PC shipments, but it will also have to wait until 2022 for the 5nm platform to plan to support DDR5 solutions.

Looking at the two major supply platforms of PC, due to the limited BOM total cost structure, the plan for a new generation of memory will not be implemented until 2022, which means that DDR5 will only stay in the product development and verification stage in this and next two years.

  Intel, AMD are expected to mass-produce DDR5 Server DRAM products in 2022

Intel, which is also the main platform supplier of Sever, accounts for more than 90% of the overall server shipments. Compared with the PC side, due to the lower production cost sensitivity of server products, it is faster for DDR5 products with premium prices. Platform introduction planning. It is expected that its server platform Eagle Stream will officially adopt DDR5, and it is expected to start small batch production in the second half of 2021.

TrendForce estimates that DDR5 server DRAM products will gradually be mass-produced in 2022 and replace existing DDR4-related products.

The DRAM market is changing across generations, and 2021 will be the first year of DDR5

The secondary platform supplier AMD accounts for less than 10% of the total server shipments. However, the upcoming Milan platform still uses the current mainstream solution, DDR4. variable.

The Genoa platform test will start in 2021, and the mass production schedule has been projected to 2022. If the platform decides to officially carry DDR5, AMD’s server memory solutions will not significantly transition to DDR5 until 2023 at the earliest.

  Qualcomm, MediaTek high-end chip blessing, LPDDR5 penetration rate will be ahead of DDR5

Qualcomm and MediaTek are both mainstream AP suppliers for smartphones. Taking this year as an example, the two together account for nearly 70% of the total smartphone shipments.

Among them, Qualcomm is relatively active in the implementation of LPDDR5. Since the beginning of the year, the high-end chip Snapdragon 865 that can be supported has been launched, and the subsequent high-end 7 series will be fully equipped with LPDDR5. Therefore, a new generation of memory solutions has been introduced this year.

MediaTek’s introduction of LPDDR5 is significantly slower. The current high-end 5G chips include the public version of the Dimensity series, and there are still only LPDDR4-related applications. It is expected that in 2021, at least two chips will support LPDDR5 for the first time (the name is undecided), and there is a chance to ask the market in the first half of 2021.

Under the strategic marketing of memory suppliers, the price difference between LPDDR5 and LPDDR4X has quickly converged to within 10%, which is conducive to the popularization of new-generation products.

Looking forward to 2021, with the support of Qualcomm’s high-end 7 series and MediaTek’s new generation chips, and the faster and more power-saving features of LPDDR5, the overall penetration rate is expected to fall at 18.5%, and the subsequent development will depend on its relationship with Once the price difference between LPD4X and the existing mainstream LPDDR4X is eliminated, the penetration rate of LPDDR5 compared to DDR5 is bound to be faster and clearer.

 GDDR6 has become a mainstream Graphic DRAM solution, and NVIDIA and AMD are listed as standard for new products

NVIDIA, the main graphics card GPU supplier, accounts for about 75% of Graphics Card shipments. In 2018, it released the Turing series of GTX and RTX graphics cards, among which the mid-to-high-end products are already equipped with GDDR6; and the performance upgrade version launched last year The Super series is equipped with GDDR6 across the board, and the Ampere GPU launched in the third quarter also uses it as the basic specification.

AMD, a secondary platform supplier, accounts for about 25% of Graphics Card shipments, and its NAVI GPUs launched in 2019 have all been equipped with GDDR6. The next-generation BIG NAVI released in the third quarter includes GDDR6 as standard, and the capacity is further improved , rapidly increasing the penetration rate of GDDR6.

The Graphics Card field shared by the above two platform suppliers has accounted for nearly 70% of the total Graphics DRAM consumption. Therefore, with the platform’s active support for GDDR6, although there is still a price difference between GDDR6 and GDDR5, it has continued to converge (currently roughly Not more than 10%, and even some suppliers have already given the same price).

In addition to the Graphics Card field, game console products account for about 30% of Graphics DRAM consumption. The XBOX Series X and PS5 new game consoles released by Microsoft and Sony in the fourth quarter will be equipped with high-standard GDDR6 16GB. Not only does it double the amount of GDDR5 used in existing models, it also far exceeds the current mainstream graphics card specifications of 6 to 8GB.

According to TrendForce, the major platform suppliers of the above-mentioned terminal products have a crucial influence on the penetration and introduction of new-generation memories. Basically, after JEDEC clearly defines the specifications of new products, DRAM manufacturers are generally able to produce particles or modules within one year, but without the support of the platform, even if the new products of DRAM manufacturers are not supported. It is already ready, and it will also inhibit the efficiency of the overall penetration rate increase.